Election Outcomes: What We Know So Far

Election day came and passed, but like almost everything in 2020 proved to be unpredictable, at least for now. As of Thursday morning, there are still votes to count and still no clear winner, but the path to 270 electoral votes is looking to be in Biden’s favor. All eyes continue to be fixed on the crucial states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Alaska, and even Nevada are still in play as they continue to count the final mail-in ballots.

As expected, in-person, day-of voting is leaning in President Trump’s favor, but as mail-in ballots are counted, Biden has gained or taken over several razor-thin margins in some of these battleground states. Early Wednesday morning, President Trump prematurely claimed victory and threatened legal action against legitimate ballots that were cast and still being counted.  Wednesday afternoon Trump’s campaign filed a lawsuit in Michigan to try and stop vote counting and called for recount in Wisconsin.

The Trump campaign is also asking the Supreme Court to intervene in Pennsylvania’s extension ballot deadline and halt the vote-counting in the state. Pennsylvania had extended the deadline to receive ballots up to three days after as long as they were postmarked on election day. The Supreme Court had previously allowed the deadline to stand. If Biden maintains his leads Nevada and Arizona, he would not need to win Pennsylvania to reach the 270 electoral votes to win. Pennsylvania may take several days to finish counting mail-in ballots.

By Wednesday afternoon most outlets have projected that Biden would win Wisconsin, and Michigan with the remaining mail-in ballots still being counted. Biden also flipped the second congressional district in Nebraska. It is also projected that Biden will take one Maine electoral vote and Trump will win the other. Trump is also expected to win Alaska. Trump is leading to win in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Georgia by slim margins.

As of Thursday morning, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania margins have tightened as outstanding mail-in ballots are being counted keeping the race competitive and too close to call at this time.

House and Senate Update

As the U.S. waits to find out the presidential race, some results are evident. Democrats’ hopes of winning the Senate faded as several vulnerable Republicans appear to have won re-election.  Democrats have picked up seats in Colorado where former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) beat incumbent Sen. Cory Gardner (R), and Arizona, where Mark Kelly beat incumbent Martha McSally (R). But they lost a seat in Alabama, where Tommy Tuberville (R) beat Sen. Doug Jones (D).

Republicans have held on to the toss-up seats for Sen. Lindsey Graham in South Carolina,  Sen. Joni Ernst in Iowa, Sen. Steve Daines in Montana, Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, and so far are up in the toss-up seats for Sen. David Perdue in Georgia, Sen. Tom Tillis in North Carolina. Georgia’s open seat is headed for a runoff between Kelly Loeffler (R) and Raphael Warnock (D).

The Democrats only possible path to a Senate majority would be if both Georgia races go to a runoff and Biden wins giving Democrats the vice president a tie-breaking majority.

In the House, the Democrats retained the majority, but Republicans did far better than predicted. Pollsters and Democrats were clearly wrong when they prognosticated that the Democrats would win around a dozen seats in the House. By Wednesday afternoon, Democrats had not beaten a single Republican incumbent, including several key races that they targeted in Ohio, Illinois, and Texas. At this point, Democrats have won 205 seats with 218 needed to win the majority and 40 still at play.

Republicans so far have picked up at least seven seats, including House Agriculture Chairman Collin Peterson (D-MN), Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL), Rep. Donna Shalala (D-FL), Rep. Kendra Horne (D-OK), Rep. Xochitl Torres (D-NM), Rep. Joe Cunningham (D-SC) and Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D-IA).  Dozens of races determining the fate of vulnerable Democrats remain uncalled, in part because many states are still counting mail-in ballots. Regardless of who wins the White House, House Democrats will have to rethink legislative strategy as they head into the lame-duck and deal with a more formable minority and a likely GOP Senate.  This examination may lead some Democratic lawmakers to challenge the current leadership in their caucus’ leadership elections in the 117th Congress.