Legislative Update: Presidential Transition & Second Impeachment

Presidential Transition

On Jan. 7, the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate affirmed President-elect Joe Biden’s victory. The joint session to count electoral votes was delayed hours by protesters at the U.S. Capitol, incited by Trump’s months-long push to overturn the election. Lawmakers completed the constitutionally required process that marks the final step in certifying the transition of power before Biden’s inauguration on Jan. 20. President Donald Trump publicly acknowledged in a statement that he would leave office on Jan. 20, pledging an orderly transfer of power.

Impeachment Proceedings Possible in the House this Week

With just over a week left in Mr. Trump’s presidency, the fallout from the assault on the U.S. Capitol has been swift and wide sweeping.  As more information emerges about the events on Jan. 6, more Republican lawmakers, administration officials, traditionally conservative media sources, and high-profile supporters have been distancing themselves from the President and his refusal to acknowledge the election is over.

The House has introduced an article of impeachment Monday charging Trump with “incitement to insurrection” following the violent events that took place at the Capitol Wednesday. The House also voted on a resolution calling on Vice President Pence to invoke the 25^th Amendment to the Constitution to remove the president from office before Jan. 20. Pence rejected the call Tuesday night. The House is expected to vote on impeachment Wednesday.

The House in the 117^th Congress

The House of Representatives met on Jan. 3 to elect Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) as the Speaker of the House for the fourth time and swear in new members of Congress. Pelosi will be responsible for guiding President-elect Joe Biden’s agenda through the House. The job will not be easy considering that the House has just an 11-seat margin, the slimmest margins in since World War II Speaker Pelosi will be confined to moving bills that have nearly unanimous support.

With such narrow majorities in the House and the Senate evenly divided, it will be imperative for Democrats in each chamber to remain in sync with each other for the Democrats to be successful in passing their legislative agenda. This is a rare achievement and will be even more difficult if progressives in the Democratic party are more assertive in challenging moderates and attempt to overtake floor time with their priorities.

Republican leaders will also try managing the challenges of the ideological split in their own caucuses while keeping their eye and political moves focused on regaining the majority in the 2022 midterms.  The 116th Congress saw Republicans splitting into two factions and several upstart Republicans willing to buck party leaders to show loyalty to President Trump and their ardent constituent bases.  The new Congress will be a test to how far they will push the leadership and rank-and-file Republicans in the caucus with Trump losing the presidency, and possibly maintaining some power and influence over the party in his post-presidency.

The House also adopted a new rules package for the 117th Congress in a 217-206, party-line vote.  Republicans accused Democrats of trying to silence the minority’s voice by making changes to the Motion to Recommit (MTR) rule. In the past, the MTR has been used by the minority party to make alterations to bills on the floor, but the rule change would only allow the motion to become a procedural move to send a bill back to committee, which would be easier for the majority to vote down. Republicans were able to use the MTR to change a bill up to eight times in the 116th Congress. But Democrats argue that the intention of the motion has been lost in recent years as both parties have used it in a way to trap their opponents into voting on controversial policies for political purposes. Democrats also made changes to the pay-as-you-go, or PAYGO, provision that requires legislation that would increase the deficit to be offset. The changes will give the Budget Committee chairperson the authority to declare legislation providing economic and health responses to the pandemic, as well as environmental measures designed to combat climate change, as having no cost and therefore not a violation of PAYGO.

The Senate in the 117^th Congress

On Tuesday, Democratic challengers Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossof defeated Republican incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue in Georgia’s twin runoff elections. The results give President-elect Joe Biden both a Democratic House and Senate to pass his agenda, but with very tight margins and possibly only a two-year time frame. The Senate chamber will be evenly split 50-50 between the Democratic and Republican senators, with Senator Chuck Schumer (R-NY) becoming the new Majority leader. Vice President-elect Kamala Harris, presiding as President of the Senate, will vote in cases necessary to break a tie.

With the Senate evenly divided, there will be some logistical negotiations between the two caucuses on the committees’ budgets and the number of seats to be allocated.  The thin majority will also dictate what legislation the Democratic Majority Leader will bring to the Senate floor, making moderate Senators such as Joe Manchin (D-WV), JonTester (D-MT), and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) perhaps even more powerful than the caucus leaders.