Legislative Update: Uncertainty if the USMCA Will Pass This Year

USMCA

House Democrats and United States Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer continue to make significant progress in their negotiations for a final agreement on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said Nov. 25 that House Democrats and the administration have negotiated their issues and are waiting for the final text from the USTR in writing for a final review. Reports remain positive that a deal is close, and an announcement may be made as early as this week. Upon returning from Thanksgiving recess, House leadership officially changed its legislative calendar, adding an extra week to the session so they could work through Dec. 20. This gives Congress additional time to avoid a government shutdown by passing the remaining FY2020 spending bills and an additional four legislative days boosting the possibility of passing the USMCA.

Mexican Undersecretary for North America Jesús Seade said the Mexican government received the USMCA proposals negotiated by USTR Lighthizer and House Democrats. Seade said on Nov. 27 that he initially had found them acceptable but still needed to “study” the proposals adding that “everything seemed to be going in the right direction.”  The Undersecretary said that while nothing in the proposals caught him by surprise, “adjustments” might still be discussed with U.S. officials.

“Every single issue that has made me lose my sleep is off the table. We are on the way to a resolution,” Seade told reporters after a meeting with USTR Lighthizer. The Undersecretary emerged from meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland on Nov. 29, saying there are still “important details” to work out, but he expects an agreement may be announced sometime this week or next.

If a compromise is announced in the coming days, doubt continues if Congress has enough time to pass the USMCA this year. House Speaker Pelosi reconfirmed that she wants passage this year, but hinted that there might not be enough time. There are yet many procedural steps to be carried out that the White House might push back on. Plus, Mexico and Canada must still approve any changes. The implementing bill would have to be submitted on a day when the House and Senate are in session. Under fast-track procedures, the bill would then go through mock markup and hearings. There is speculation that President Donald Trump will push to pass the bill without these steps. Still, many lawmakers support the institutional purpose of the procedure. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-IA) said last month that mock markups could be “done very quickly” but warns that work on the USMCA must wrap up this week to be able to have a chance at being ratified this year. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi could be willing to bypass mock markups if “she is able to reach closure” on outstanding issues.